美国一年丢失200万工作，奥巴马吁民众勿绝望

记者伍德报导/美国11月纷减少了53万3千份工作，远远超过预期。这是34年来最糟的一份就业报告，显示经济衰退不断深化。

过去一年里，一度生机勃勃的美国经济失掉了近200万个工作机会，大大超过市场原来的预期。坏消息传出之后，股市最初的反应是急剧下跌。东京三菱银行在纽约的经济学家埃伦.岑特纳在接受彭博电视台采访的时候说，还会有更多的人丢掉工作，如果三大汽车制造商中有任何一个破产，失业率将大幅攀升。

岑特纳说：“汽车工业的供应商将不得不解雇工人，还有为汽车配件厂工人洗衣服的干洗店，一连串的影响，会有许多人失业。这就是政府为什么要认真讨论能够提供些什么帮助。”

*汽车工业如履薄冰*

据估计，美国有300万个工作与美国汽车工业直接关联。星期五，三大汽车制造商主管连续第二天在国会相关委员会陈述明年4月前需要340亿紧急贷款以维持经营的理由。宾夕法尼亚州民主党籍众议员保罗.坎乔斯基对国会迅速批准这些贷款不乐观：“我不觉得国会眼下对做这件事有兴趣，我想你们现在是如履薄冰。其实，我倒是汽车工业的朋友。”

不管出于什么原因，好在股市星期五下午止跌回升，道琼斯大幅反弹，最后猛涨259点，升幅3%，以8千635点作收。但是，俄亥俄州克利夫兰FTN中西部证券公司的托尼.德怀尔认为，全球金融市场仍处于冰冻状态。他说：“我们需要人们出来买入公司证券，如果他们这样做，公司就能够筹集到资金，支持未来的发展。”

原油价格继续回落，星期五跌至每桶40美元多一点。过去一个星期，油价下滑2.85美元，降幅25%，已经到了2004年12月以来的最低点。这个星期的大量抛售甚至超过2003年美军控制伊拉克油田后7天之内24%的跌幅。油价下滑的原因是全球对汽油的需求一落千丈。

美国当选总统奥巴马说，尽管经济衰退让美国失去大约200万个工作，但是美国人能够重新控制他们的“经济命运”。当选总统奥巴马在他的每周广播讲话中说，衰退的经济让许多美国人感到沮丧。但是奥巴马说，经济复苏计划会让人们重新就业，让美国更强大。

奥巴马说，他将展开“大规模努力”，提高公共大楼能源使用效率，大量投资道路和基础设施和升级学校大楼。这个计划还呼吁进一步普及因特网，确保医院和医生办公室充分使用科技。当选总统奥巴马说，这些动议将帮助创造或者保留至少250万个工作，并为纳税人解决数十亿美元。

Obama says economy to get worse before it improves

By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent David Espo, Ap Special Correspondent – 15 mins ago

WASHINGTON – President-elect Barack Obama said the economy seems destined to get worse before it gets better and he pledged a recovery plan "that is equal to the task ahead."

Obama also said in an interview broadcast Sunday that the survival of the domestic car-making capacity is important, yet any bailout must be "conditioned on an auto industry emerging at the end of the process that actually works."

Less than six weeks before he takes office, Obama said that help for homeowners facing foreclosure is an option as part of his plan. He sidestepped a question about when he plans to raise taxes on wealthy Americans.

Obama's interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" was his most extensive since winning the White House more than a month ago.

In the intervening weeks, the economy has showed clear signs of worsening. Employers said they eliminated more than 500,000 jobs in November alone and retailers reported disappointing holiday-season sales.

"The economy is going to get worse before it gets better," he said twice in the early moments of the interview, taped Saturday in Chicago.

The president-elect announced on Saturday he would call for the most massive spending on public works since the creation of the interstate highway system a half-century ago. In a word of caution to powerful lawmakers, he said the first priority would be "shovel-ready" projects — those that could create jobs rights away.

"The days of just pork coming out of Congress as a strategy those days are over," he added.

Obama said repeatedly that his economic advisers are at work on an economic aid package, but he has largely stayed out of the public debate over bailout aid to the Detroit automakers. Congress and the Bush administration are at work on a plan for roughly $15 billion for General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC. Congressional leader hope to pass the measure this week.

Obama suggested he would support such a plan, so long as it was accompanied by conditions to "keep the automakers' feet to the fire in making the changes that are necessary" for longer-term survival. He also indicated he did not believe bankruptcy is an acceptable course of action for any of the companies.

The president-elect sidestepped a question about the pace of a troop withdrawal from Iraq, saying he would direct U.S. generals to come up with a plan "for a responsible drawdown." He said in the campaign he wanted most U.S. troops withdrawn within 16 months, but did not say then, nor has he now, how large a deployment should be left behind.

Obama also spoke about his latest Cabinet selection, retired Gen. Eric Shinseki to head the Veterans Affairs Department. Shinseki was forced into retirement by the Bush administration after he said the original invasion plan for Iraq did not include enough troops.

"He was right," Obama said.

// bad business should be gone.
// who is bailing out those laid-off or outsourced.

Obama suggests some automaker executives should lose jobs

CHICAGO — President-elect Barack Obama fired a warning shot today at the top executives of the Big Three auto companies, saying that they should either agree to drastic reforms or be sacked.

“If this management team that’s currently in place doesn’t understand the urgency of the situation and is not willing to make the tough choices and adapt to these new circumstances, then they should go,” Obama said at a brief Sunday afternoon news conference here.

In similarly plain terms, he portrayed the Bush administration as dragging its feet on the home mortgage crisis, and pledged that he would act immediately upon being sworn in next month.

“We have not seen the kind of aggressive steps in the housing market [from the administration] to stem foreclosures that I would like to see,” he said.

Without going into details, he said his transition team had had conversations with Bush officials on the mortgage issue and is preparing plans.

“If it is not done during the transition it will be done by me,” he promised.

But Obama tempered his language toward Detroit and the White House with notes of caution and patience.

“If on the other hand they are willing, able and show themselves committed to making those important changes then that raises a different situation,” he said of the auto company executives.

“I think the administration understands the severity of the problem,” Obama said of President Bush, offering a more generous assessment than he'd made during the campaign. “I think they want to do the right thing.”

Obama, who warned during an appearance on Meet the Press earlier today that the economic news "is going to get worse before [it] gets better," expounded at length upon the jobs and economic growth package he began to outline in his Saturday radio address.

Citing his plans to spend money on energy efficiency, school construction, broadband and medical information technology, he explained why he was proposing infrastructure investment beyond the typical fare of roads and bridges.

Mixing job growth and technology upgrades, he said, was aimed at getting people back to work now and benefiting them again down the line.

“All of these things are designed to have long-term payoffs for taxpayers, not just for individual businesses,” Obama said.

Obama spoke for just under 20 minutes, taking three questions from reporters.

The purpose of the session was to officially announce that retired Army Gen. Eric Shinseki would serve as secretary of veterans affairs in the new administration.

Obama, wearing an American flag lapel pin and standing before eight flags, used the occasion to mark the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor, vowing to honor today’s veterans in the same fashion as those who fought in World War II.

“We owe it to all our veterans to honor them as we honored our Greatest Generation – not just with words, but with deeds.”

Shinseki, a combat-wounded Vietnam veteran and former chief of staff of the Army who famously clashed with the Pentagon’s civilian leadership over Iraq war policy, also singled out the unique needs of those who have served there and in Afghanistan.

Sen. Dodd senator calls for GM head to step down

CHICAGO – A senator who will help determine whether the auto industry gets a $15 billion bailout said Sunday that the head of General Motors should step down, telegraphing what could be a congressional demand for a top-line shake-up in Detroit in exchange for financial life support.

Rick Wagoner, the chief executive of GM, "has to move on," said Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., chairman of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. He spoke on CBS' "Face the Nation."

"I think you have got to consider new leadership," Dodd said. Asked if that should be a condition of any bailout, he added, "I think it is going to have to be part of it."

"I think it's clear GM is in the worst shape," Dodd said before specifying the need for Wagoner to step down.

In response, GM spokesman Steve Harris said the company appreciates Dodd's support for the loans, but added, "GM employees, dealers, suppliers and the GM board of directors feel strongly that Rick is the right guy to lead GM through this incredibly difficult and challenging time."

Last week, The Associated Press asked Wagoner if he would resign at the request of Congress, to which he replied, "It's not clear to me that experience in this industry should be viewed as a negative, but I'm going to do what's right for the company and I'm going to do it in consultation with the board."

GM's board recently has been meeting three times a week by telephone.

But the shots kept coming Sunday. President-elect Barack Obama accused auto executives of a persistent "head-in-the sand approach" to long-festering problems. In an appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press," Obama said Congress was doing "the exact right thing" in drafting legislation that "holds the auto industry's feet to the fire" at the same time it tries to prevent its demise.

The criticism of industry leaders deepened as negotiators for the White House and Congress narrowed their differences over a plan to extend roughly $15 billion in short-term loans to any Detroit automaker that needs them. Analysts say General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, in particular, are at risk for running out of money in the next few weeks, and that Ford Motor Co. may need help if the economy deteriorates further.

Democratic Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, whose state is ground zero for the battered industry, told "Fox News Sunday" he was confident an agreement would emerge within the next day.

Democratic leaders have said they hope to pass the measure this week. While Levin declined to predict its approval, support among rank-and-file lawmakers presumably would improve dramatically if both White House and Obama were to signal their backing once the legislation is complete.

"The last thing I want to see happen is for the auto industry to disappear, but I'm also concerned that we don't put $10 billion or $20 billion or $30 billion or whatever billion dollars into an industry, and then, six months to a year later, they come back hat in hand and say, `Give me more,'" Obama said.

Obama, who takes office Jan. 20, has drawn some criticism from Democrats who want him to become more involved in efforts to save the industry. The president-elect said his aides are monitoring developments and considering longer-term plans.

He expressed no support for calls to allow the big carmakers to enter bankruptcy and said, "We don't want government to run companies." Instead, he said, "if taxpayer money is at stake — which it appears may be the case — we want to make sure that it is conditioned on an auto industry emerging at the end of the process that actually works, that actually functions.

"Taxpayers, I think are fed up. They're going through extraordinarily difficult times right now."

Obama did not single out any individual executive by name for criticism, and said there had been incremental progress in the past 15 years toward a more competitive line of products.

"What we haven't seen is a sense of urgency and the willingness to make tough decisions. And what we still see are executive compensation packages for the auto industry that are out of line compared to their competitors, their Japanese competitors, who are doing a lot better," he said.

Asked whether the top executives should remain in the jobs, he said: "Here's what I'll say, that it may not be the same for all the companies. But what I think we have to put an end to is the head-in-the-sand approach to the auto industry that has been prevalent for decades now."

Later, at the news conference, he appeared to temper his comments, saying that current management should be ousted if it doesn't understand the urgent need to make changes in the industry.

A breakthrough on the long-stalled rescue came Friday when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., yielded to President George W. Bush on a key point: allowing the aid to come from an existing fund set aside for the production of environmentally friendlier cars.

The Big Three executives spent two consecutive days on Capitol Hill this past week pleading for as much as $34 billion in loans to help their industry survive. GM and Chrysler made clear that $15 billion would be enough to keep them running until the end of March 2009.

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奥巴马推出经济复苏计划 刺激美股大幅攀升

新华网纽约12月8日电 受美国当选总统奥巴马推出经济复苏计划以及汽车工业巨头很有可能得到美国政府援助等消息刺激，8日纽约股市三大股指的涨幅均超过3％。

奥巴马6日发表讲话，公布了其经济复苏计划。该计划一项重要的内容就是将启动50年来最大规模的基础设施建设，包括大力发展洲际交通设施。这个消息对市场产生了正面影响，8日原材料和机械行业股票出现飙升。

当天，推动股市走高的另一个因素是，美国汽车工业三巨头很有可能将于本周获得政府的救助。有消息称，美国国会和政府或将在8日晚些时候就汽车业拯救计划达成一致，最早有望在本周二对救援方案进行投票表决。不过，布什政府可能会只拿出150亿美元来帮助通用、福特和克莱斯勒先坚持到明年3月，然后再由奥巴马政府来决定如何继续挽救这三家公司。8日通用汽车的股价大幅上扬了21％。

另外，因石油输出国组织可能大幅削减产量，8日纽约市场国际原油期货上涨了7％。受此影响，全球第一大石油公司埃克森美孚和美国第二大石油公司雪佛龙领涨能源股。

纽约股市收盘时，道琼斯30种工业股票平均价格指数比前一个交易日涨298．76点，收于8934．18点，涨幅为3．46％。标准普尔500种股票指数涨33．63点，收于909．70点，涨幅为3．84％。纳斯达克综合指数涨62．43点，收于1571．74点，涨幅为4．14％。

欧洲主要股市当天也纷纷大幅上涨。伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数涨6．19％，收于4300．06点。法兰克福股市ＤＡＸ指数涨7．63％，收于4715．88点。巴黎股市ＣＡＣ40指数涨8．68％，收于3247．48点。

奥巴马发表讲话阐述经济振兴计划(全文)

中国网12月7日讯 综合报道，美国当选总统奥巴马6日通过民主党每周广播讲话称，他将通过一个能创造大量工作岗位的大规模公共工程计划以重振经济。以下是他讲话的全文：

早上好，

昨天，我们接到了一个令人痛苦的消息，仅在11月美国就损失了53.3万个工作岗位，是三十年来月失业率情况最为糟糕的一次，而经济进入衰退以来全国总失业人数增加至近二百万人，这再次提醒我们国家所面临经济挑战的严重性。

这些并不仅仅是数字，而事关数字背后的每个家庭，很多人在圣诞节前却感受到越来越强烈的不安和失望。美国人是否有能力供养孩子上大学？是否能支付医疗费用？能否能够在维持尊严和保障的情况下退休？自己或者丈夫、女儿、儿子是否可能即将失业？

这些问题让许多美国人难以入睡，但这些问题并不是第一次出现。美国在历史上曾经历过艰难时光，经济前景同样难测，但在那种时刻，我们曾站起来以应对挑战，我们为共同的目标而团结一致。我知道，美国人能够再次站起来。

但我们需要采取行动，必须立刻开始。这就是为什么我已要求我的经济团队为华尔街和其它行业制订一份经济恢复计划，这将帮助挽救或者创造至少250万工作岗位，同时重建我们的基础设施、改善我们的学校，降低我们对石油的依赖度，节省数十亿美元。

新政府不会按照华盛顿过去的方式行事，我们不会仅仅向暴露出问题的领域投入金钱，我们将评估改革具体措施的进展和成果，根据我们创造的工作岗位以及节省能源效率，来判断美国在全世界是否更具竞争力。

今天，我宣布经济振兴计划中的一些要点。首先，我们将大规模改造公共建筑物，使之更加节能。美国政府现在支付着世界上最昂贵的能源帐单，我们应该做出改变。我们需要改造联邦建筑物，更换旧取暖系统，安装更为节能的灯泡。这不仅将使美国纳税人每年节省数十亿美元，而且它能够使人们重新就业。

其次，我们将对国家基础设施进行最大规模投资，将创造数百万工作岗位，这将是五十年代建立高速公路网后最大规模的基础设施投资计划。我们将采用更精明的新方法来拿纳税人的税款投资，我们的规则非常简单：要么用好，要么放弃。如果某个州政府无法快速投资建设公路和桥梁，那将失去这笔投资。

第三，新政府计划对学校建筑物进行大规模现代化改造，修复学校破损建筑物，并进行节能改造，在教室里安装新电脑设备。为提升美国孩子在21世纪的竞争力，我们需要把他们送往21世纪的学校。

在改善学校设施和高速公路状况同时，我们也会升级信息高速公路。美国在世界宽带使用率仅排名第15位，这是不可接受的。美国是发明互联网的国家，所有的孩子都应有机会使用互联网。在我任总统期间，他们将获得这一机会，我们将通过这一手段加强美国在全球的竞争力。

除了图书馆和学校外，我们还要将医院通过互联网相互联接。经济振兴计划将帮助美国实现医疗系统现代化，这不仅将能创造工作机会，而且可以挽救生命。我们保证，未来每个医生都将使用先进的医疗器械和电子医疗档案，这样可以有效减少文牍主义，防止医疗事故，每年可节省数十亿美元。

未来几周内，我还会陆续宣布经济振兴计划的其它部分。明年一月国会再次召开时，我希望与他们合作通过这一计划。我们目前需要在挽救或者创造250万工作岗位方面采取紧急行动，给近二百万失业的美国人以希望。

谢谢。

美国退休金危机将引爆 滔天巨浪卷向民间企业

次贷危机未平息，退休金危机即将引爆，滔天巨浪正卷向民间企业，退休的银发族该紧张了。

瑞士银行资深经济顾问梅纳斯（George Magnus）最近在新书「老年危机」（Age of Aging）中指出，下一个横扫全球的重大金融危机不是卡债危机、循环信用危机或中国危机，而是退休金缺口危机与银发族危机。

梅纳斯指出，金融海啸在不到一年内，把美国401（k）退休金计画财富蒸发2兆美元，英国类似的确定提拨退休金计画价值也减少约三分之一。

更让人担心的是，2007年时，先进国家过半退休人士没有足够的储蓄，这点表示各国政府、民间企业与个人对人口结构的变化准备不足，难以应付即将爆发的退休金危机。民间企业退休基金计画正陷入这场完美风暴的中心，美国企业尤其如此，因为全球空头市场蒸发了退休基金计画的大量资产之际，2006年退休金保护法又提高了企业的出资负担。

美国退休金保护法强制规定2008年起，退休金资产至少必须等于预测负债的94%，也就是退休基金计画已投资资金至少要等于2009年1月1日给付金额的94%，如有短缺，企业必须附加的提拨，同时遭到其他限制。

在股市惨跌、企业退休基金资产减损惊人的情况下，美国若干最大企业可能必须为公司退休基金，附加的提拨资金，进而拉低明年申报的盈余。

根据瑞士信贷银行的分析，美国标准普尔500大企业的退休基金赤字至少高达2,000亿美元，是2002年以来最大的赤字金额。瑞士信贷也算出其中128家大企业明年盈余可能因此减少。

英国企业的情形一样差，英国电信的退休金负债高达50亿英镑、英国邮局40亿英镑、英国航空15亿英镑。

一年来，千百万民间企业退休金计画的参与者看着退休金缩水，幸福退休的美梦破灭，不知如何是好，有关的政府部门、企业、企业主也提不出解决之道，又看着公共部门退休人士领取黄金版的丰厚退休金，只能大叫「不公不义」，等着退休金危机爆发。

Merrill Lynch CEO seeking $10 million bonus for 2008

(Reuters) – Merrill Lynch & Co Chief Executive John Thain has suggested to directors that he get a 2008 bonus of as much as $10 million, but the battered company's compensation committee is resisting his request, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the situation.

The compensation committee has not reached a decision, but is leaning toward denying Thain and other senior executives bonuses for this year, the people told the paper.

Merrill could not be immediately reached for comment.

Shareholders on Friday approved Bank of America Corp's takeover of Merrill, a deal fraught with risk but one that would create a banking giant with a leading position in almost every major area of the financial system.

Merrill was arguably saved from extinction when it agreed to merge on September 15, an hour before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc filed for bankruptcy. The fear was that Merrill could be next if shareholders and trading partners fled, as many did at Lehman and the former Bear Stearns Cos.

Thain has said he deserves a bonus because he helped avert what could have been a much larger crisis at the firm, people familiar with his thinking told the WSJ.

Members of Merrill's compensation committee agree with Thain that the takeover is in shareholders' best interest, but believe it would be foolish to ignore strong public sentiment against large compensation packages, the paper said, citing people familiar with their thinking.

Committee members are also weighing the fact that other Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc, which did better than Merrill this year, are not giving out bonuses to top executives, the paper said.

Thain, who became Merrill's chief executive after losses in mortgage-related investments led to the October 2007 ouster of Stanley O'Neal, has also run NYSE Euronext, after a long career at Goldman.

After the Bank of America-Merrill deal is completed, he will run the merged company's global banking, securities and wealth management businesses. Thain will not be joining Bank of America's board.

// 12 fortune 50 CEO 2007 Bonus  // from $33.6 million to $1.6 million

CEOs Who Should -- and Should Not -- Get Bonuses This Year

by Manuel Baigorri and Amanda Zusman
Monday, December 8, 2008provided by Business Week

A Bad Year for CEO Bonuses?

For chief executives seeking annual bonuses, this will be a tough year.

Trouble in the economy made it difficult, if not impossible, for even the best managers to meet goals that corporate boards set for chief executives at the start of 2008. And even if corporate boards want to reward CEOs for doing a good job in a bad environment, it doesn't look good to give something extra to executives while employees are being laid off and shareholders have seen stock prices plunge.

The latest example is Merrill Lynch chief executive John Thain. The Wall Street Journal reported on Dec. 8 that Merrill's board is resisting Thain's request for a bonus of up to $10 million. In 2008, Merrill's stock price plunged, it had to sell itself to Bank of America and thousands of employees face layoffs. But Thain can argue he helped avoid an even worse crisis for the firm.

This list examines which high-profile CEOs should get a candy cane -- or coal -- in their stockings. In looking at which execs do or do not deserve a 2008 bonus, we used criteria including profit growth in the past year and stock performance relative to competitors. Another, more subjective factor is public relations and employee morale. A company's image would take a hit if a chief executive gets a multimillion-dollar bonus while other costs are being slashed and employees are losing their jobs. The final decisions on CEO bonuses will be made in the next few months by corporate boards, and the size of bonus payouts must be disclosed in the spring.

(Year-to-date share performance is as of Dec. 2, 2008. Compensation figures reflect total pay, including salary, bonuses and equity compensation for the last fiscal year, according to data provider Capital IQ.)

1. Kenneth I. Chenault

American Express
2007 compensation: $26.2 million
YTD share performance: -60.09%
Net income, One-Year Growth: -19.8%

American Express has been feeling the effects of the credit crunch: The company set aside $1.4 billion for credit losses in the third quarter, up from $905 million in 2007. Investors are worried that AmEx is too reliant on the credit markets for funding.

2. G. Richard Wagoner Jr.

General Motors
2007 compensation: $14.4 million
YTD share performance: -80.51%

Net income rose to a loss of $22 billion in the last twelve months, from a loss of $37.1 billion the previous year.

Wagoner inherited more than 50 years worth of problems when he became GM's CEO. But the lack of a clear business plan for the future and timid steps toward change aren't doing enough to help the company, which turned to Congress to help avoid bankruptcy.

3. Carol Meyrowitz

TJX
Annual compensation: $8.6 million
YTD share performance: -28.65%
Net income, One-Year Growth: 37.7%

While TJX saw slightly lower-than-expected sales in its third quarter due to weak consumer spending, the company is doing everything it can to maintain decent profit margins. Its profit growth is far better than that of any other apparel retailer in the S&P 500. Meyrowitz announced that the company continues to gain market share across the board.

4. Indra K. Nooyi

PepsiCo
2007 compensation: $11.8 million
YTD share performance: -28.8%
Net income, One-Year Growth: -8.63%

PepsiCo announced in October that it would be cutting 3,300 jobs after a sizable profit decline in 2008. While Pepsi is suffering from weak U.S. sales, it is expanding its international partnerships and investing $4 billion in China and Mexico.

5. Jeffrey R. Immelt

General Electric
2007 compensation: $19.6 million
YTD share performance: -54.19%
Net income, One-Year Growth: -7.22%

Problems at GE's financial businesses have taken their toll, and GE shares are now down 44% from when Immelt took over in September 2001. Investors approved of the company's recent announcement that it will restructure its ailing capital unit, but the move will result in an unspecified number of layoffs.

6. John Mack

Morgan Stanley
2007 compensation: $1.6 million
YTD share performance: -77.89%
Net income, One-Year Growth: -95.4%

Unlike rival investment banks on Wall Street, Mack has been able to keep Morgan Stanley independent, though as a government-supported bank holding company it is a far different animal from what it was just a few months ago. Credit losses have flattened the firm's profits and share price.

7. Hugh Grant

Monsanto
2007 compensation: $11 million
YTD share performance: -33.66%
Net income, One-Year Growth: 103.8%

Under Grant, Monsanto has persuaded more and more farmers to plant its biotech crops designed to increase agricultural yield. Profits have more than doubled. The stock has fallen amid a slump in agricultural commodity prices but only after a breathtaking run-up in 2007 and early 2008.

8. W. Bruce Johnson

Sears Holdings
2007 compensation: $1.6 million
YTD share performance: -64.63%
Net income, One-Year Growth: -69%

Sears Holding Chairman Edward S. Lampert promoted W. Bruce Johnson to interim chief executive at the beginning of the fiscal year. Sales at the Kmart and Sears chains continue to fall faster than those at many rivals, with Sears total same-store sales off 9% last quarter. The company is shedding underperforming stores, and announced a $500 million stock-buyback plan.

Campbell Soup

9. Douglas R. Conant

Campbell Soup
Annual compensation: $9.8 million
YTD share performance: -15.14%
Net income, One-Year Growth: 38.7%

Campbell, a classic defensive stock, has boosted profits despite the economic slowdown. Also, its share price has performed much better than the broader stock market and is also besting many rivals in the consumer staples sector.

10. John Strangfeld Jr.

Prudential Financial
2007 compensation: $10.1 million
YTD share performance: -79.46%
Net income, One-Year Growth: -64.8%

The Newark (N.J.) insurance giant has been missing earnings expectations and has been battered by several investment losses in the current crisis. Also, credit rating agency Fitch Ratings lowered Prudential's senior debt and insurance subsidiaries ratings on Dec. 2, out of concerns that the company will need additional capital next year.

11. Miles D. White

Abbott Laboratories
2007 compensation: $33.3 million
YTD share performance: -7.44%
Net income, One-Year Growth: 136%

Abbott experienced strong third-quarter growth, with sales up 17.6% driven partly by demand for Humira, a drug to treat autoimmune disorders. The company recently approved a $5 billion share-buyback program, and White recently noted that all of Abbott's businesses were performing ahead of expectations.

12. Gregory Q. Brown

Motorola
Annual compensation: $6.1 million
YTD share performance: -73.38%
Net income: A loss of $487 million in the past 12 months, vs. positive net income of $474 million the previous year.

Chief executive since March 2007, Brown became co-CEO when Motorola tapped Sanjay K. Jha to share the chief executive post in August to help revive the flagging firm. On Dec. 2, Moody's Investors Service said it was considering downgrading Motorola's debt rating, citing the deteriorating performance of Motorola's handset division and other businesses.

Click here to see the full list.

Copyrighted, Business Week. All rights reserved.

美国经济衰退会持续多久？（1） -xxq2001-

前些日子我读到一篇“Fortune”杂志的文章“How long will the recession last?”。 文章中提到了美国历史上经历的几次经济衰退。 作者Anthony Karydakis认为：2009年中期，这次美国经济的衰退将会结束。 作者认为，这次衰退不可能达到1929年大萧条的严重程度，会与73年到75年的衰退比较相像，因为这两次皆因衰退石油价格上涨而引起。 银行不断增加的呆账，对于明年下半年的经济恢复将会造成相当的阻碍和影响。即使是那时走出了衰退，也不会很快有大规模，强劲的经济增长。 联邦政府一系列已出台和将出台的政策将会在今后几个季度里有效地稳住经济形势，控制住这次衰退的发展。

美国1929年以来经历的经济衰退

时间 持续时间（1） 与上次间隔（1） 持续时间（2） 失业率 (2)

1929–1939 10年 43个月 25%
1953–1954 1年 24年
1957–1958 1年 4年
1973–1975 2年 16年 16个月 9%
1980–1982 2年 7年 16个月 10.8%
1990–1991 1年 10年
2001–2003 2年 11年
2007–目前 -- 6年 18个月? 6.5%**

注：
（1）：“Lst of recessions in the United States” fom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia;
（2）Anthony Karydakis， How long will the recession last? Dec. 3, 2008, Fortune
**： 6.5%的失业率为文章发表时的美国失业率。

===================

原文：

How long will the recession last?
Longer than past downturns, and Wall Street's meltdown will slow the recovery.
By Anthony Karydakis, contributor
Last Updated: December 3, 2008

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Well, now it's official: we're in a recession. And we know when it began: December 2007, according to the official arbiter of business cycles, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which made the announcement Monday. So now the question is: when will it end, and how deep will it get?

There are good reasons to be worried about both of these measurements, as the headwinds facing the economy are powerful indeed. But it's best to resist the temptation to give in to predictions of unconditional gloom and take a cool-headed look at how this recession compares so far to the many other downturns we've survived.

On the likely depth of the recession, it has been often said that this may be the most severe recession "in decades." This statement is almost certainly true but not particularly informative, as the two most recent recessions, in 1990-91 and 2001, turned out to be famously mild and short-lived by historical standards. So the real question remains: "the deepest recession" in exactly how many decades?

The most intuitive, and legitimate, reference is the 1981-82 recession, which lasted a longer-than-average 16 months and led to a peak of 10.8% in the unemployment rate - by all standards, a pretty serious affair. Still, it would take an extraordinary amount of additional severe damage to today's economy over a fairly long period to drive the unemployment rate from its current 6.5% to double-digit territory.

It is also important to remember that the 1981-82 recession was almost deliberately caused by sky-high interest rates, in the titanic fight of Fed chairman Paul Volcker to drive inflation out of the system. In contrast, the Fed's response now has been to pull out all the stops in the other direction, including the precipitous lowering of short-term interest rates and a barrage of other actions. A somewhat more plausible comparison to the current downturn is the 1973-75 recession, commonly attributed to the surge in oil prices at the time. That one lasted a longer-than-average 16 months and led to a 9% peak in the unemployment rate.

Direct comparisons to the Great Depression have become more common in recent weeks, given the collapse of the stock market and consumer spending. But those comparisons overlook many key facts. During the Great Depression, the unemployment rate surged to 25% and GDP contracted by 28% between 1930 and 1932, an unthinkable prospect in today's environment, thanks to a long list of underlying differences between then and now.

For example, the banking system collapsed in its entirety during the Great Depression and the absence of bank deposit insurance at the time caused catastrophic erosion to household wealth and consumption. Today, FDIC insurance (and its recently elevated limit to $250,000) provides a significant cushion; the response of economic policymakers is immeasurably faster and more aggressive now; and the coordinated actions among the major economies today to address the root causes of the current episode are both impressive and totally unprecedented.

How long will this one last? The prevailing view: probably through the middle of 2009. Two points to highlight here:

First, such a prediction is not based on any particularly refined insight that economic forecasters have into the current recessionary dynamic. After all, economic forecasting has a well-deserved reputation for being a notoriously imperfect art (most definitely not a science).

The predictions about this recession lasting through mid 2009 are mostly based on the following simple calculation: Until the NBER's announcement on Monday, the prevailing view was that the recession probably started at some point last summer and it was likely to be about average in length, by historical standards. Given that the average length of the ten recessions since World War II has been 10.4 months, with a range of 6 months in the 1980 recession to 16 months in the 1981-82 one, the natural "placeholder" time frame for the end of this recession would appear to be the middle of 2009.

However, the fact that the recession is now already 12 months old, and clearly not approaching its trough yet, raises the distinct prospect that it will exceed the length of the 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions (both at 16 months), making it the longest since the Great Depression (43 months, from August 1929 to March 1933). The crowd fond of making comparisons to the Great Depression will be quick to declare some kind of victory on this one.

Second, the prediction that this recession may end around the middle of 2009 is not unreasonable, but even if accurate it disguises the critical question: What kind of a recovery is likely to follow? The answer is: probably a gradual one, unlike the more typical (but not universal) pattern of the economy coming out of most past recessions roaring ahead, propelled by pent-up consumer demand.

The healing process of a deeply wounded banking system, that has already led to nearly $1 trillion of write-downs, will act as a weight around the neck of any economic recovery in the latter part of 2009. Banks will likely continue the slow process of recapitalization and cleaning up the mountains of toxic assets on their balance sheets for a period longer than just the next few quarters.

That task will become even more challenging in the months ahead, as the recession itself will tend to generate an additional amount of toxic assets in their portfolios, impairing their ability to resume a more normal pace of lending. So, even though the economy may technically emerge from the recession in the second half of 2009, the recovery may initially become more of an issue of semantics rather than a robust turnaround in economic activity.

To be sure, this is a major recession and its downside risks in the midst of a highly volatile financial market environment shouldn't be underestimated. There are reasons, though, to believe that its severity and length will ultimately be contained by an unprecedented array of economic policy measures, some already in place, others in the pipeline.

Despite a series of false starts with some of those measures by the Treasury, the Fed's seemingly limitless reserve of innovative actions and the incoming administration's commitment to put in place a particularly aggressive fiscal stimulus package should gradually gain some traction that will help stabilize the economy within the next three quarters or so.

About author:
Anthony Karydakis is a former chief U.S. economist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management and currently an adjunct professor at New York University's Stern School of Business.

【原创】Obama讲话的总结 - 前方多艰险 -燕王- 

O8讲话的总结 - 前方多艰险

【燕王按】Obama没错，现在救市就像救命－先输血，再说别的。

---

本王今天就说说“别的”－你们也不妨想想。

1， 美国经济近20年就是“寅吃卯粮”。1992年竞选，Ross Perot
指出了这一点。本王记得，他不是反对借钱，是怕还不起利息。

所以，Clinton时期加税等等，赶上经济发展，稍微好了些。

2001年后，减税，减息，炒房，等等。“卯粮”吃完了，
就“寅吃辰粮，巳粮”（辰巳午未…），以为且吃着呢。

然而，墙街上的用“巳粮”担保，搞“辰粮”交易。就倒掉了。
大家发现全是忽悠。

政府不让倒，就大量印票子，搞“午粮”担保，交易。弄不好，一样
会倒掉。

2， Obama的输血救市 – 和以前还是一个路子。还是想“寅吃卯粮”，
只不过，这次要政府“干预”- 换句话，政府发“粮票”；争取
人人有一口。

墙街的老总以前多吃多占惯了，现在不允许了，一样的一人一口。

本王看得清楚，不管政府发“粮票”，还是像以前，一哄而上，
都还是“寅吃卯粮”。

所以，救市即使救活了，也还是老一套。只是多弄了些粮票出来。

3， 前方多艰险

本王说过，大的三部曲是：金融，经济，美元危机。现在走了一步半：

经济危机刚开始，就如火如荼。金融危机，一笔烂帐：$ 6-10 Trillion.
头些年发印子钱的都在追帐。700 B杯水车薪，连个水漂都打不起来。

大三部曲里还有小三部曲，N部曲，难免都得演一回。

美国经济4大支柱：金融，房地产，出口，消费，同时都出了大问题。

N部曲：
失业，
破产 （个人和公司，公司破产更引起失业）
信用卡，
房贷，车贷 – 破产，追帐

保险业，尤其是贷款保险，医疗保险
零售业

国际上：

贸易保护，（估计又是欧洲某国）
兑换率不稳定
贸易战

最后说一下：一旦美元开始Carry Trade，就极可能是世界末日 – 彻底
失控。最近有些风声说Fed可能学日本，大量提供美元。

美国没有外汇储备，极易失控，只能印，但是，收不回来。
极其危险。

4， 输血救市

美国经济就像得了重病的病人，在送医院的路上还被打了一枪。到了
医院，大夫说，先输血，再做手术。

护士到血库一看，就跟国库一样，没有血浆，也没有血清，只有白条。

你怎么办？再到河对岸的医院去借？

反正病人平时身体好，再坚持一下吧。

时间长了，局部供血不足，就会坏死。就可能去手去脚。

今天Obama讲话了：没有血浆就先输水；同时要吃补药 – 避免
下次得病…

像是搞心理治疗 – 目的是让病人再多坚持一下。


---
燕王，12/7/08
后记，相比之下，12/7/41那次算是轻的。

Homeowners who modified loans are in trouble again

Broader response to foreclosure crisis urged

Industry, government officials debate broader response to foreclosure crisis

• Alan Zibel, AP Real Estate Writer

• Monday December 8, 2008, 4:20 pm EST

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A top House Democrat threatened Monday to tie up the remaining half of the $700 billion financial industry rescue money unless the Bush administration provides some of it for borrowers facing foreclosure.

"They're not going to get the (money) unless they get very serious about the foreclosure modifications and showing us how we're going to get some lending out of the banks," Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., told reporters after speaking at a housing industry conference in Washington. "At this point I don't see that happening."

The Treasury Department says $335 billion has been allocated from the first half of the $700 billion program, which was enacted on Oct. 3. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who is overseeing the program, is weighing tapping the second $350 billion. The main goal of the program is to get financial institutions to lend money more freely again, which would help revive the economy.

Critics like Frank say many in the public -- and lawmakers on Capitol Hill -- were led to believe that some of the money would go to avoiding foreclosures and are frustrated that it has yet to do so.

The powerful chairman of the House Financial Services Committee told a lunchtime audience that the lack of meaningful aid for homeowners has undermined the government's other rescue efforts. American voters are "increasingly skeptical" of federal aid to major Wall Street banks and other large companies, Frank said.

Next year, after President-elect Barack Obama takes office, lawmakers plan to subsidize rental housing, reform lending practices and overhaul the regulations for companies that collect mortgage payments and distribute them to investors, Frank said. Lawmakers also should regulate the amount of debt that can be issued by hedge funds and other Wall Street firms, he added.

Neel Kashkari, director of the Treasury Department office overseeing the $700 billion program, said its primary goal is to stabilize the financial system.

"Imagine how many foreclosures we would have if the financial system had been allowed to collapse," he said in remarks to the same conference.

Meanwhile, Wall Street extended its rally for a second straight day despite news of more layoffs by a trio of large U.S. employers as investors were optimistic that Obama's plan to ramp up infrastructure spending could help boost the crippled economy. All the major indexes posted gains, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which added nearly 300 points.

Discussion at Monday's forum, sponsored by the federal Office of Thrift Supervision, focused on how broad the government's intervention should be, rather than whether the government should play any role at all. The U.S. is on track for 2.25 million foreclosures this year, more than double traditional levels.

New data released Monday show that more than half of all homeowners who had their loans modified to make the payments more affordable in the first half of the year are already in default again.

The data raise questions about whether government money may be better spent on creating jobs, rather than averting foreclosures, said John Reich, director of the federal Office of Thrift Supervision. "I do have concerns about allocating federal resources," to such an effort, he said.

But the reports aren't detailed enough to show how well the programs are working or which borrowers have been most helped, said Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and a proponent of broadening loan assistance efforts.

"The quality of the (modifications) are not what they should be," she said.

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine called for a three- to six-month halt to foreclosures while the government works out a more aggressive plan. "We need a bottom-up approach ... by modifying people's mortgages and helping them stay in their homes," he said.

The U.S. economic picture has darkened over the past month. One in 10 Americans with a mortgage is either behind or in foreclosure, and more than 500,000 jobs were lost in November.

Unemployment stands at 6.7 percent, and the worldwide credit markets have only improved modestly from the freeze that led Congress to approve a $700 billion bailout before the election. On Monday, three more large U.S. employers announced layoffs.

Dow Chemical Co., based in Midland, Mich., said it will slash 5,000 jobs and shutter 20 plants to rein in costs, Maplewood, Minn.-based 3M Co. is cutting 1,800 jobs in the fourth quarter and ordering some workers to take vacation or unpaid time off for the last two weeks of the year, while Anheuser-Busch InBev said it would cut about 1,400 U.S. jobs to help save the world's largest brewer at least $1.5 billion a year.

Three-quarters of the jobs cuts will be at Anheuser's North American headquarters in St. Louis. The cuts go beyond plans Anheuser-Busch announced this summer to streamline costs, before it agreed to be taken over by InBev.

Also Monday, newspaper publisher Tribune Co. filed for bankruptcy. The privately held owner of the Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune, other newspapers and the Chicago Cubs and Wrigley Field, is struggling with $13 billion in debt.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, said the public is likely to be more sympathetic to efforts to assist troubled borrowers, because the link between the foreclosure crisis and the sinking economy is increasingly clear in the minds of most Americans.

"It's now in every corner of the country," Zandi said. "I think that people understand that this is a broader issue."

During an interview that aired Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," Obama declined to say how large an economic stimulus plan he envisions. He said his blueprint for recovery will include help for homeowners facing foreclosure on their mortgages if President George W. Bush has not already acted when Obama takes office next month.

For nearly a year, some consumer advocates, lawmakers and think tanks have advocated a dramatic government response. The effort, they say, should be similar to created the Home Owners' Loan Corp. in 1933 to help borrowers refinance troubled home loans during the Great Depression.

The Bush administration has focused mainly on voluntary industry efforts to modify loans, and those have not stopped the surge in foreclosures.

AP Business Writers Jeannine Aversa, Christopher S. Rugaber and Daniel Wagner contributed to this report.