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unavail ( 男 , 45 )
地区: 美国, 加州
作者: unavail, 俱乐部:醉是音乐 [引文评论] [评论
时间: 2008-12-05 09:31:22, 来源:未名交友
标题: 金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII)

() Favorite songs, music, verses...||醉是音乐”俱乐部 || [总目录] 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05
BestSong200 || DreamDance || Forum-intro || Verses || Fav-short || xdjdmc || 好文推荐 ||
专辑 ||
2008-12, || 08 Crisis || 08 Election || 新人新诗 || 新人报到 ||



金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (I), (II) (III)(IV)(V) (VI) (VII) (VIII) (IX)(X) <= click the link for details
金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XI),   <= click the link for details
 
美国金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII)

The coming death of Indian outsourcing
Employers shedding jobs as recession deepens
AT&T to cut 12,000 jobs, 4 percent of staff
Skittish employers cut 533,000 jobs in Nov., the most in 34 years

通缩笼罩美国 最坏的时刻还没来
2009 Recession Will Be Severe: 'There Is a Global Deflationary Risk,' Roubini Says

经济步入衰退 Google也勒紧裤带过日子()
533,000 jobs slashed in 11/08




※ 最后修改者:unavail, 修改于:2008-12-05 21:45:41 ※
※ 来源:Unknown Friends - 未名交友 http://us.jiaoyou8.com ※

unavail ( 男 , 45 )
地区: 美国, 加州
作者: unavail, 俱乐部:醉是音乐 [引文评论] [评论
时间: 2008-12-05 09:31:46, 来源:未名交友
标题: Re: 金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII)

// 4// 4 million us IT jobs gone with $30 billions goes to india.
// F// Finance and accounting are the next target of outsourcing to india.

The coming death of Indian outsourcing   // this explains why us economy is so bad

Sramana Mitra, Forbes.com | March 03, 2008

India is riding high on outsourcing.

Information technology and IT-enabled services will employ 4 million people in 2008 and account for 7% of gross domestic product and 33% of India's foreign-exchange inflows, according to Nasscom, an Indian IT industry organization.

The death of this industry is far from anyone's mind.

However, the reality is that wages are rising in India. The cost advantage for offshoring to India used to be at least 1:6. Today, it is at best 1:3. Attrition is scary.

Jobs that are low value-added and easily automatable should and will disappear over the next decade.

People talk a lot about India moving up the value chain. Some of that has indeed happened. An industry that started gaining momentum when Indian software developers were tapped to help fix the 'Y2K' problems in old software code has blossomed beautifully into one that offers a much more comprehensive spectrum of services.

Yet, India, for all its glory, is still the world's back office. India's tech industry is a "services" industry. The Indians don't do the thinking. The customers do. India executes.

As a result, India has not learned to invent technology products of its own. Barring a few exceptions, the huge amount of venture capital chasing India finds it difficult to be deployed. There is way too much money, way too few deals. Instead, tech-sector VCs are now diverting capital to retail, real estate, hotels and other non-tech sectors.

India's $30 billion IT/ITES services industry, meanwhile, is slowly and surely losing its competitive advantage.

Most of the 4 million people that the industry employs have now "arrived." They have breezed through the milestones that their fathers had to toil all their lives to reach. A phone. A watch. A TV. A car. A house.

They are complacent. They will not take risks. They have "outsourced" thinking to their customers.

As the 1:3 cost structure becomes 1:1.5, it will soon become inefficient to use Indian labor. Why not Oklahoma or British Columbia? For many Europeans, Eastern Europe has already become more compelling than India. The pure labor arbitrage equation will no longer balance.

ADP, the largest U.S. payroll services provider, has 45,000 employees worldwide, of which only 2,500 are in India. It has around 1,000 workers in El Paso, Texas, it's expanding a location in Augusta, Ga., and it's opening a facility in Jackson, Miss. It's also growing a location in Halifax, Canada. ADP isn't moving its workforce to India--it's hedging its bets geographically. On a recent earnings call, ADP's chief executive used terms such as "smartshoring," and "nearshoring" to describe the strategy.

The software as a service (SaaS) megatrend in technology also plays against India.

Here's an example: There's a tiny Silicon Valley start-up called InsideView. It helps customers to generate sales leads, qualify those leads and use technology tools to help find big sales opportunities for customers.

In November 2007, InsideView acquired a company called TrueAdvantage, which did the exact same thing manually with a team of 150 people in India. After the acquisition, InsideView moved all 2,500 of TrueAdvantage's customers over to its SaaS solution. All 150 TruAdvantage employees in India were laid off.

That's been a familiar tale in Detroit--but no so far in India. But that's changing.

Indian powerhouses like Infosys [Get Quote] and Wipro [Get Quote] must diversify their portfolios away from pure body-shopping and process competencies to technology-driven advantages. They, too, could build--or acquire--SaaS businesses.

So far that's not happening. Infosys is still hiring thousands of new employees in India every year. The mood is upbeat. Nasscom is forecasting 25% annual growth in the Indian IT services industry for the next few years. The golden goose is still laying large, warm eggs, enough to feed the 4 million and their families, servants, chauffeurs and cooks.

Meanwhile, the workforce is getting comfortable in their cubicle chairs, just as the turkey gets comfortable before Thanksgiving.

Forbes recently published some scary statistics on wage inflation in India. Salaries rose 15.1% in 2007, up from 14.4% the previous year. The 2008 forecast: 15.2%. This would be the fifth consecutive year of salary growth above 10%.

Add to that the appreciation of the rupee against the weakening dollar, and its impact on the labor arbitrage market.

Is the death of Indian outsourcing all that far off?

Assuming a 15% year-to-year salary hike rate, and a 2007 cost advantage of 1:3 in favor of India, if US wages remain constant, India's cost advantage disappears by 2015. Then what?


More Specials



※ 最后修改者:unavail, 修改于:2008-12-05 11:47:17 ※
※ 来源:Unknown Friends - 未名交友 http://us.jiaoyou8.com ※

unavail ( 男 , 45 )
地区: 美国, 加州
作者: unavail, 俱乐部:醉是音乐 [引文评论] [评论
时间: 2008-12-05 09:32:03, 来源:未名交友
标题: Re: 金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII)

Employers shedding jobs as recession deepens

 

Friday December 5, 12:07 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- With the economy sinking faster, employers are giving more Americans dreaded pink slips right before the holidays.

The Labor Department releases a new report Friday that's expected to show the employment market deteriorated in November at an alarming clip as the deepening recession engulfed the country.

After bolting to a 14-year high of 6.5 percent in October, the unemployment rate likely climbed to 6.8 percent last month, according to economists' forecasts. If they are right, that would mark the worst showing in 15 years.

Skittish employers, which have slashed 1.2 million jobs this year alone, probably axed another 320,000 last month, economists forecast. If that estimate is correct, it would represent the deepest cut to monthly payrolls since October 2001, when the economy was suffering through a recession following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Employers are slashing costs to the bone as they try to cope with sagging appetites from customers in the United States as well as in other countries, which are struggling with their own economic troubles.

The carnage -- including the worst financial crisis since the 1930s -- is hitting a wide range of companies.

Just in recent days, household names like AT&T Inc., DuPont, JPMorgan Chase & Co., as well as jet engine maker Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp., and mining company Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. announced layoffs.

Fighting for their survival, the chiefs of Chrysler LLC, General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. will return Friday to Capitol Hill to make a pitch to lawmakers for the second straight day for as much as $34 billion in emergency aid.

Worn-out consumers battered by job losses, shrinking nest eggs and tanking home values have retrenched, throwing the economy into a tailspin. As the unemployment rate continues to move higher, consumers will burrow further, dragging the economy down even more, a vicious circle that Washington policymakers are trying to break.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected ratchet down a key interest rate -- now near a historic low of 1 percent -- by as much as a half-percentage point on Dec. 16 in a bid to breath life into the moribund economy. Bernanke is exploring other economic revival options and wants the government to step up efforts to curb home foreclosures.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the overseer of a $700 billion financial bailout program, is weighing new initiatives, too, even as his remaining days in office are numbered.

President-elect Barack Obama, who takes office on Jan. 20, has called for a massive economic recovery bill to generate 2.5 million jobs over his first two years in office. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has vowed to have a package ready on Inauguration Day for Obama's signature. The measure, which could total $500 billion, would bankroll big public works projects to create jobs, provide aid to states to help with Medicaid costs and provide money toward renewable energy development.

The United States tipped into recession last December, a panel of experts declared earlier this week, confirming what many Americans already thought.

At 12 months and counting, the recession is longer than the 10-month average length of recessions since World War II. The record for the longest recession in the postwar period is 16 months, which was reached in the 1973-75 and 1981-82 downturns. The current recession might end up matching that or setting a record in terms of duration, analysts say.

The 1981-82 recession was the worst in terms of unemployment since the Great Depression. The jobless rate rose as high as 10.8 percent in late 1982, just as the recession ended, before inching down.

Given the current woes, the jobless rate could rise to as high as 8.5 percent by the end of next year, some analysts predict. Projections, however, have to be taken with a grain of salt because all of the uncertainties plaguing the economy. Still, the unemployment rate often peaks after a recession has ended. That's because companies are reluctant to ramp up hiring until they feel certain the recovery has staying power.



※ 来源:Unknown Friends - 未名交友 http://us.jiaoyou8.com ※
unavail ( 男 , 45 )
地区: 美国, 加州
作者: unavail, 俱乐部:醉是音乐 [引文评论] [评论
时间: 2008-12-05 09:32:23, 来源:未名交友
标题: Re: 金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII)

AT&T to cut 12,000 jobs, 4 percent of staff

 

Thursday December 4, 10:49 pm ET
By Barbara Ortutay, AP Technology Writer

 

NEW YORK (AP) -- Pressured by the economic turmoil and the mounting loss of traditional phone customers, AT&T Inc. is cutting 12,000 jobs, about 4 percent of its work force.

The Dallas-based telecommunications company, the nation's largest, said the job cuts will begin this month and run throughout 2009. The company also plans to lower its capital spending next year, and one analyst estimates that reduction could be as much as $2 billion.

The 300,000-person company has announced layoffs several times over the past few years, including in April, when it said it would eliminate 4,600 jobs, but it has been hiring at the same time. This is the first time since the company bought BellSouth Corp. in 2006 that it said overall staffing would decline.

The new cuts were part of a parade of layoffs tied to the recession. In addition Thursday, chemicals company DuPont announced plans to lose 2,500 jobs, Credit Suisse Group slashed 5,300 and media conglomerate Viacom Inc. jettisoned 850. Yet AT&T, which provides local phone coverage in California, Texas and 20 other states, is also being pulled by another current: the long-term trend of people defecting from landline phones to wireless services or phone service from the cable company.

In the last quarter, AT&T's basic voice lines in service dropped 11 percent. Its wireless customer base, meanwhile, grew 14 percent.

Reflecting that "changing business mix," the company said it still plans some hiring in 2009 in parts of the business that offer cell phone service and broadband Internet access.

The shift away from landlines has accelerated because of the economic turmoil, said Christopher King, an analyst with Stifel Nicolaus. Fewer homes bought means fewer landlines getting installed or transferred. And more are getting disconnected as people look to save money and rely only on their cell phones.

AT&T spokesman Walt Sharp said the layoffs will be "across the company and across the country," but would not specify what departments and cities would be most affected.

Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal said late Thursday he would seek "an immediate order" to stop what he called an "illegal action" by AT&T to layoff workers in his state. He said AT&T is already failing to meet service demands in the area.

"We will take action before our regulatory authority to fight this," said Blumenthal, referring to the state's Department of Public Utilities Control. "This is the height of arrogance and insensitivity." He said he thought 500 Connecticut workers could be affected.

King expects most of the lost jobs to come from the company's landline business. But he said some might also come from the unit of the company that serves large businesses and accounts for about 30 percent of AT&T's sales. Companies have been cutting back spending because of the recession, and this, King said, will "certainly pinch" AT&T's revenue growth.

AT&T, whose shares are down about 30 percent this year -- while the Dow Jones industrial average is off 35 percent -- remains profitable, and benefits from being the sole U.S. wireless carrier for Apple Inc.'s popular iPhone. This is in sharp contrast to rival Sprint Nextel Corp., which has been hemorrhaging wireless subscribers and has seen its shares lose 80 percent of their value this year. Last month, Sprint said it is offering voluntary buyout packages to an unspecified number of its 57,000 workers.

Verizon Communications Inc., the nation's second-largest phone company, has fared better than AT&T so far. Its landline business is concentrated in the Northeast, which hasn't been as battered by the housing crisis as some of the markets AT&T serves, like Florida and California. However, Verizon figures to be more affected by a slowdown in business spending and the fallout from the financial sector's crisis.

AT&T plans to take a charge of about $600 million in the fourth quarter to pay for severance costs. The company is still finishing its capital spending plans for next year, and said it will give more specifics on the planned reductions when it posts fourth-quarter earnings in January.

UBS analyst John Hodulik estimates the layoffs will save the company about $720 million, or 8 cents per share, annually. He also expects AT&T's reduction in capital spending to amount to about 10 percent of the $20 billion being spent in 2008.

AT&T noted that many of its non-management employees have guaranteed jobs because of union contracts. All affected workers will receive severance "in accordance with management policies or union agreements," the company said.

AT&T's shares fell 67 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $28.41 in afternoon trading.



※ 来源:Unknown Friends - 未名交友 http://us.jiaoyou8.com ※
unavail ( 男 , 45 )
地区: 美国, 加州
作者: unavail, 俱乐部:醉是音乐 [引文评论] [评论
时间: 2008-12-05 09:32:42, 来源:未名交友
标题: Re: 金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII)

Skittish employers cut 533,000 jobs in Nov., the most in 34 years

 

WASHINGTON – Skittish employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, dramatic proof the country is careening deeper into recession.

The new figures, released by the Labor Department Friday, showed the crucial employment market deteriorating at an alarmingly rapid clip, and handed Americans some more grim news right before the holidays.

As companies throttled back hiring, the unemployment rate bolted from 6.5 percent in October to 6.7 percent last month, a 15-year high.

Job losses were widespread, hitting factories, construction companies, financial firms, retailers, leisure and hospitality, and others industries. The few places where gains were logged included the government, education and health services.

The loss of 533,000 payroll jobs was much deeper than the 320,000 job cuts economists were forecasting. The rise in the unemployment rate, however, wasn't as steep as the 6.8 percent rate they were expecting. Taken together, though, the employment picture was dismal.

The job reductions were the most since a whopping 602,000 positions were slashed in December 1974, when the country was in a severe recession.

Job losses in September and October also turned out to be much worse. Employers cut 403,000 jobs in September, versus 284,000 previously estimated. Another 320,000 were chopped in October, compared with an initial estimate of 240,000.

Employers are slashing costs to the bone as they try to cope with sagging appetites from customers in the U.S. and in other countries, which are struggling with their own economic troubles.

The carnage — including the worst financial crisis since the 1930s — is hitting a wide range of companies.

In recent days, household names like AT&T Inc., DuPont, JPMorgan Chase & Co., as well as jet engine maker Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp., and mining company Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. announced layoffs.

Fighting for their survival, the chiefs of Chrysler LLC, General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. will return Friday to Capitol Hill to again ask lawmakers for as much as $34 billion in emergency aid.

Workers with jobs saw modest wage gains. Average hourly earnings rose to $18.30 in November, a 0.4 percent increase from the previous month. Over the year, wages have grown 3.7 percent, but paychecks haven't stretched that far because of high prices for energy, food and other items.

Worn-out consumers battered by the job losses, shrinking nest eggs and tanking home values have retrenched, throwing the economy into a tailspin. As the unemployment rate continues to move higher, consumers will burrow further, dragging the economy down even more, a vicious cycle that Washington policymakers are trying to break.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected ratchet down a key interest rate — now near a historic low of 1 percent — by as much as a half-percentage point on Dec. 16 in a bid to breathe life into the moribund economy. Bernanke is exploring other economic revival options and wants the government to step up efforts to curb home foreclosures.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whose department oversees the $700 billion financial bailout program, also is weighing new initiatives, even as his remaining days in office are numbered.

President-elect Barack Obama, who takes office on Jan. 20, has called for a massive economic recovery bill to generate 2.5 million jobs over his first two years in office. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has vowed to have a package ready on Inauguration Day for Obama's signature.

The measure, which could total $500 billion, would bankroll big public works projects to create jobs, provide aid to states to help with Medicaid costs, and provide money toward renewable energy development.

The U.S. tipped into recession last December, a panel of experts declared earlier this week, confirming what many Americans already thought.

At 12 months and counting, the recession is longer than the 10-month average length of recessions since World War II. The record for the longest recession in the postwar period is 16 months, which was reached in the 1973-75 and 1981-82 downturns. The current recession might end up matching that or setting a record in terms of duration, analysts say.

The 1981-82 recession was the worst in terms of unemployment since the Great Depression. The jobless rate rose as high as 10.8 percent in late 1982, just as the recession ended, before inching down.

Given the current woes, the jobless rate could rise as high as 8.5 percent by the end of next year, some analysts predict. Projections, however, have to be taken with a grain of salt because of all the uncertainties plaguing the economy. Still, the unemployment rate often peaks after a recession has ended. That's because companies are reluctant to ramp up hiring until they feel certain the recovery has staying power.



※ 来源:Unknown Friends - 未名交友 http://us.jiaoyou8.com ※
unavail ( 男 , 45 )
地区: 美国, 加州
作者: unavail, 俱乐部:醉是音乐 [引文评论] [评论
时间: 2008-12-05 09:33:12, 来源:未名交友
标题: Re: 金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII)

通缩笼罩美国 最坏的时刻还没来

美股保持近日大幅波动走势。受私企就业职位和服务行业指数大幅下跌影响,道指昨日(3日)开市即下挫至全日最低点,下跌逾180点,跌至最低8234点;之后受网上零售业业绩理想和房屋按揭申请数字急升刺激,零售商、银行及房屋建造业股份受追捧,道指止跌回升,在上下300点间好淡争持,道指在最后一小时抽上近180点,以接近全日最高位收市。

道指收市报8592点,上涨173点,升2.1%;标普500871点,上升22点或2.6%;纳指升43点或2.9%,报1492点。纽约证交所成交15.5亿股。

供应管理协会(Institute for Supply Management)公布,11月份美国服务业指数下降至37.3,跌幅创1997年以来新高;劳工部报告第三季度美国劳工生产率则略高于此前公布的数据;而ADP国家就业指数报告11月份美国企业共减少25万个岗位,降幅是7年以来最高。受不利数据影响,市场忧虑需求下降,原油及期货商品价格下跌,纽约商品交易所2月份交货的黄金期货价格每盎司下跌12.80美元或1.6%,收报770.50美元;原油期货结算价下跌17美分报每桶46.79美元。相关股份受到沽压,全美最大铝金属生产商,美国铝业(Alcoa Inc.) 下挫4.8%9.29美元,成为道指最大跌幅股份。

债券大王、全球最大的债券基金Pacific Investment Management Co.负责人Bill Gross接受访问时说,美联储承诺购买5000亿美元按揭债务后,按揭息率下降,维持在4.5至5厘之间。而按揭银行家协会(Mortgage Bankers Association)则表示,自美联储公布计划以后,30年期的固定按揭息率下降至5.47厘,这是三年来的新低。按揭申请上周飙升112%,创历史新高。消息推动银行及房屋建造商的股票上升。

美国股市近期的表现,可以用极端波动来形容,道指这两个月平均的上下波幅达到517点,10月份更超超过600点。比较起来,道指昨日波幅只有390点,只能算是较轻微了。这个现象,Dana Investment AdvisorsJoseph Veranth有这样的解释,投资者对后市意见分岐,有一部分人认为股市已见底,而一部分人则仍恐惧后市会下跌。所以你买我卖,股值上上下下。

市场见美股反弹,交易大厅又开始弥漫着美股已见顶的乐观空气,不过灾难没有这么容易就过去,不妨给大家点悲观论调。纽约大学教授罗宾尼(Nouriel Roubini)因为准确预测此次金融海啸而名噪一时,它刚刚在《金融时报》发表一篇名为《如何防止恐怖的停滞通缩》(How to avoid the horrors of stag-deflation’),提出明年经济的恐怖预期,值得大家留意。罗宾尼说,美国及全球经济正面临一个严重的停滞通缩风险,是衰退和通缩的混合体。全球衰退引发通缩历程,公司减价,员工减薪,投资减少令商品价格急跌,令通胀急降,当降到1%的时候,通缩危机开始出现。

他表示,通缩非常危险,因为会带来流动性陷阱、通缩陷阱和债务通缩陷阱。首先是银行不愿意借贷的流动性陷阱,美联储只有减息,将名义利率减到1厘,明年可以减到0厘。但由于通缩出现,物价增长是负数,实质利率是名义利率加通胀/通缩,所以通缩时即使名义利率降到零,实质利率仍然好高;如此就会令消费和投资却步,物价再跌,收入和职位再下跌(通缩陷阱);在这种环境下,借贷成本愈来愈重,你今天借100元,明天实质上要还更多,债务的实质价值会上升(债务通缩陷阱)。这样不止令人不敢借钱投资、也会令更多借贷人还钱艰难,最后破产收场,而金融机构赔钱更多,借贷就更难。

中央银行为了解决危机,只有大力减息兼放水,这些措施用尽时,只有入市买国债、买按揭证券、买商业票据,政府疯狂入市,而目前美国已慢慢走入这个地步。传统上,中央银行只是最后借贷人,但而家银行不肯借钱出街,中央银行就变成第一、甚至是唯一借贷人。而消费者消费大减以及投资者不敢投资时,政府很容易变成第一消费、投资者,令政府财赤狂升。

他估计整体信贷损失高达2万亿美元(之前市场大多估计是1万亿美元,金融机构总体己撇帐6000多亿美元),除非政府要尽快填充金融机构流失的资本,否则马上出事。但即使美国政府够快手把银行债务放入自己的帐簿内,阻止它们倒闭,美国未来两年财赤会高达1万亿美元,美国财政部和美联储已把大量的信贷风险揽上身,但美国政府也会出现信用危机。

将到这里,你可能很想知道罗宾尼的预测,他预计未来几个月,宏观经济及企业的坏消息会比想像的糟糕很多,信贷紧缩会再度恶化,因为大量的对冲基金或其它的杠杆投资者会被逼出售资产,令价格再跌,金融机构会再倒闭,部分新兴市场会出现全面金融危机,总之没有一个好消息。罗宾尼说,危机并未过去,2009年会是通缩和破产的一年,在全球衰退中充满着苦痛。若全球政府能快速、合作、以非常进取的政策行事,才可令经济在2010年恢复,避过漫长的停滞和通缩。

目前已有不少看经济的猛人,预计最好的情况都要等到明年才有好转,你信也好,不信也好,记住不要这么快就看好市场反弹。




※ 来源:Unknown Friends - 未名交友 http://us.jiaoyou8.com ※
unavail ( 男 , 45 )
地区: 美国, 加州
作者: unavail, 俱乐部:醉是音乐 [引文评论] [评论
时间: 2008-12-05 09:33:32, 来源:未名交友
标题: Re: 金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII)

2009 Recession Will Be Severe: 'There Is a Global Deflationary Risk,' Roubini Says

 

Posted Dec 04, 2008 12:18pm EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession 

Related: ^dji, ^gspc, TLT, UDN, UUP, GLD, SPY

Central bankers around the world are pulling out all the stops in order to combat a severe economic downturn that threatens to get even worse.

"There is a global deflationary risk," says Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor. "That's what central bankers are worried about."

In Europe today, the ECB and Bank of England slashed rates by greater than expected levels. Meanwhile, the Fed and Bank of Japan are taking "unorthodox actions" to pump liquidity into their economies. Both central banks are engaged in "quantitative easing," meaning rates are effectively zero regardless of what the official policy is.

"The Fed is trying to preemptively avoid a deflation trap [which] is very dangerous," Roubini says. "Whether they'll be successful or not, I don't know."

The problem, he says, is there's going to be a "severe recession" both in the U.S. and globally in 2009. That means falling demand for goods and increased slack in the labor markets. That will put further downward pressure on prices and raise the risk of outright deflation, which is defined as: A persistent decline in general price levels, typically accompanied by a severe contraction in employment and economic output.

"It's hard to undo the structural factor" of falling demand meeting a supply glut of goods and services, he says, recommending the following policy actions to try and stem the deflationary tide:

  • A "huge" fiscal stimulus package: $500-$700B.

  • Recapitalize the banks faster, i.e., get TARP money distributed sooner.

  • Rather than focusing on mortgage rates, reduce the face value of debt owed by "insolvent homeowners" in order for them to be able to spend again and avoid a "tsunami of foreclosures."

 



※ 来源:Unknown Friends - 未名交友 http://us.jiaoyou8.com ※
unavail ( 男 , 45 )
地区: 美国, 加州
作者: unavail, 俱乐部:醉是音乐 [引文评论] [评论
时间: 2008-12-05 11:45:12, 来源:未名交友
标题: Re: 金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII)

经济步入衰退 Google也勒紧裤带过日子()

 

经济不景气 谷歌也勤俭

企业紧缩之风已经刮到了经济繁荣年代最阔绰大方的一家公司──谷歌也开始勒紧裤带过日子了。

在谷歌10年历史的多数时间,该公司的花钱步伐堪称硅谷一景。谷歌大批招募员工,慷慨地给予丰厚待遇,包括免费的一日三餐、免费的医生、滑雪旅行、洗衣设施,以及补贴私人健身教练费用。谷歌允许技术人员将20%的时间用在自己感兴趣的项目上。谷歌的目的是开发新产品,以改变公司几乎完全依赖互联网搜索广告销售的局面。

但过去一年谷歌的收入增长显著放缓。谷歌开发的诸多产品,例如网络支付服务Google Checkout和销售电视广告时间的Google TV Ads,都没有带来显著的收入;互联网广告仍然占谷歌总收入的97%。周二在纽约证交所,谷歌股价已经跌到了275.11美元,还不到200711月创出的历史收盘价741.79美元的一半

因此,随着美国经济步入衰退,谷歌也在削减支出并裁减新项目。谷歌首席执行长施密特(Eric Schmidt)表示,我们必须表现得好像前途未卜一样。他表示,公司将削减“暗物质”,即那些不太受欢迎、缺乏吸引力的项目。他说,谷歌不会再为一个实验项目给一名工程师配备20个工作人员了。施密特表示,等到峰回路转的时候,我们就能出资支持他的天才设想。

上个月,谷歌叫停了SearchMash网站,这是谷歌用来试验用新的方式来整理搜索结果的网站。本月谷歌还打算关张Lively网站,这是谷歌今天夏天推出的一个“虚拟世界”,网络用户可以在里面为自己创建虚拟的人物和房间进行交流。谷歌解释说,公司希望优化配置资源,更专注于核心的搜索、广告和软件应用业务。

谷歌也在重新审视其一些没有附带广告的网络服务,以便能够带来更多的收入。1117日,谷歌开始在财经新闻网站Google Finance上推出广告,并表示即将开始对一些新闻网站Google News用户显示广告。

谷歌多年来的迅猛增长几乎完全来自于搜索广告销售这项单一业务,即出现在网络搜索结果页面边上的小文本广告。谷歌意识到,这种迅猛的增势不会永远持续,但迄今还没有开辟任何新的重要收入来源。

哈佛商学院教授托马斯·艾森曼(Thomas Eisenmann)表示,目前为止谷歌这种百花齐放、优胜劣汰的运营模式还不错,但如果你想成为横跨各个媒介的、占支配地位的广告网络,那你就需要更多由上而下的管理。

谷歌管理人士表示,他们一年多前就开始为增长放缓做准备了。但经济危机正迫使他们加大努力。

最近几周,施密特与公司高层进行了数次会谈,以决定把投资更集中于哪些领域。头等优先领域包括了显示广告(出现在网页上的图形广告)、手机广告以及网络商务软件。

施密特表示,公司正将更多的技术和销售资源转向这些领域,撤出前景不那么乐观的项目。他说,随着人员的抽调,公司只是浅尝辄止的一些项目团队也自然会缩小规模。

今年秋天,谷歌宣布计划大幅裁减其大约1万名合同工,涉及从工程到食品服务各个部门。尽管裁员的实施时间和重点部门尚不清楚,但谷歌员工已经开玩笑说,在车满为患的公司停车场找车位已经越来越容易了。

此外,谷歌也开始削减员工福利了。最近数月,谷歌在纽约的部门减少了免费餐厅服务时间,暂停了传统的下午茶点服务。该公司一位发言人表示,公司核心文化并没有改变。他说:我们独特的文化是谷歌之所以会成为谷歌的重要因素。

谷歌也在应对着已经降临到微软、eBay等其他科技公司头上的一个严峻问题:努力适应强势增长时代的结束。谷歌第三财季收入较上年同期增长31%,但表现明显不及2005年高达92%的年增长率。不过华尔街分析师们表示,谷歌拥有140亿美元现金,占据着美国网络广告市场大约30%的份额。在眼下的困难面前,谷歌的状况要明显好于竞争对手。

然而,各种内部变化反映出谷歌的巨大转变。在其成立之初,该公司表示应该永远将长期目标摆在股东短期利益之上。为了招募最优秀的工程师,谷歌向他们提供慷慨的福利、配有台球桌和排球场的工作场所,还允许他们搞附带项目。据目前和过去曾为谷歌效力的几位工程师称,讨论某个项目最后能否挣钱会让人瞧不起。对新创意最主要的评价标准是看网络用户的感受如何。

在这种随心所欲的文化氛围下诞生了数千个项目,有将数百万本书籍进行数字化并可供搜索的项目;名为Orkut的社交网站;名为Google Base的分类目录服务;名为Google Earth的地球卫星照片浏览服务;以及一种通过手机短信答复搜索查询的功能。其中一些项目,如谷歌的Gmail电邮服务获得了巨大成功。也有许多诸如提供数字化音乐的尝试和在线数据储存服务之类的项目一直未能推出。

在资金滚滚而来的时期,项目失败并无大碍:2005年收入增长92%2006年增长73%。但到20077月,该公司称雇员开支超标,导致当年第二季度经营收入较前一季度下滑,这可是少有的“失足”。但即便如此,2007年的收入还是增长了56%

谷歌为此新招了一名负责财务计划和分析的副总裁弗朗科斯·德来潘(Francois Delepine),他试图推行预算程序的标准化并进行更严格的管理。据知情人士称,此后财务部门开始对人均创收最高的部门分配更多的编制名额。为了更好的预测收入,公司给广告销售代理布置了任务额度,并对更多员工实行了绩效挂钩。不同部门被要求按照相同额度制定同类预算,无论是电脑服务器还是飞欧洲的商务仓机票都要如此。

谷歌还停止了原来那种只要合格就收的漫无边际的招聘方式,而是根据需要增加人手。去年四季度,谷歌新招员工数降至889人,而一年前约为1,300人。

据谷歌的产品经理称,为了更好的管理开发中的项目,最高管理层要求工程部副总裁们将各自部门内最有希望的20个项目列出来,并相应给予资源上的倾斜。而没有上榜的项目则得不到过去那样多的技术支持。

去年第四季度,谷歌的收入和净利润不及分析师预期,加剧了对经济放缓冲击网络广告市场的担忧。但今年第一和第二季度,得益于从竞争对手那夺取了更多的搜索市场份额,谷歌利润分别激增30%35%。谷歌表示,尚未感受到经济疲软的寒意,称公司具备保持强劲增长的条件,因为其搜索广告为客户提供了最理想和最可测的回报。

不过据Interactive Advertising Bureau称,第三季度全美网络广告收入为59亿美元,只比上季度增加2%。谷歌也表示,已发现汽车金融、房屋金融和房地产广告有所走弱。

金融危机在谷歌唤起了一股新的迫切感。高管们表示,仍致力于具有长期潜力的项目,但已有“瘦身”的准备。据知情人士称,前景难料的项目中包括网络日记网站Google Notebook及视频字幕搜索业务Google Audio Indexing

谷歌还开始着手合并有交叉的产品。如个人网页生成服务Google Page Creator就在9月份悄然停运,与名为Google Sites的类似产品合二为一。



※ 来源:Unknown Friends - 未名交友 http://us.jiaoyou8.com ※
unavail ( 男 , 45 )
地区: 美国, 加州
作者: unavail, 俱乐部:醉是音乐 [引文评论] [评论
时间: 2008-12-05 11:45:38, 来源:未名交友
标题: Re: 金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII)

533,000 jobs slashed

 

By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer Jeannine Aversa, Ap Economics Writer – 1 hr 1 min ago

WASHINGTON – Skittish employers slashed 533,000 jobs in November, the most in 34 years, catapulting the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, dramatic proof the country is careening deeper into recession.

The new figures, released by the Labor Department Friday, showed the crucial employment market deteriorating at an alarmingly rapid clip, and handed Americans some more grim news right before the holidays.

As companies throttled back hiring, the unemployment rate bolted from 6.5 percent in October to 6.7 percent last month, a 15-year high.

"These numbers are shocking," said economist Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics Advisors. "Companies are sharply reacting to the economy's problems and slashing costs. They are not trying to ride it out."

The unemployment rate would have moved even higher if not for the exodus of 422,000 people from the work force. Economists thought many of those people probably abandoned their job searches out of sheer frustration. In November 2007, the jobless rate was at 4.7 percent.

The U.S. tipped into recession last December, a panel of experts declared earlier this week, confirming what many Americans already thought.

Since the start of the recession, the economy has lost 1.9 million jobs, the number of unemployed people increased by 2.7 million and the jobless rate rose by 1.7 percentage points.

President-elect Barack Obama said the dismal job news underscored the need for forceful action, even as he warned that the pain could not be quickly relieved.

"There are no quick or easy fixes to this crisis ... and it's likely to get worse before it gets better," Obama said. "At the same time, this ... provides us with an opportunity to transform our economy to improve the lives of ordinary people by rebuilding roads and modernizing schools for our children, investing in clean energy solutions to break our dependence on imported oil, and making an early down payment on the long-term reforms that will grow and strengthen our economy for all Americans for years to come."

To provide relief, the Bush administration will continue to concentrate on ways to bust through a credit jam that is feeding prominently into the economy's problems, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez told The Associated Press in an interview. "We're going to stay focused on that like a laser," he said.

On Wall Street, stocks slid. The Dow Jones industrials were down more than 180 points in morning trading.

Job losses last month were widespread, hitting factories, construction companies, financial firms, retailers, leisure and hospitality, and others industries. The few places where gains were logged included the government, education and health services.

The loss of 533,000 payroll jobs was much deeper than the 320,000 job cuts economists were forecasting. The rise in the unemployment rate, however, wasn't as steep as the 6.8 percent rate they were expecting. Taken together, though, the employment picture clearly darkening.

The job reductions were the most since a whopping 602,000 positions were slashed in December 1974, when the country was in a severe recession.

All told, 10.3 million people were left unemployed as of November, while the number of employed was 144.3 million.

Job losses in September and October also turned out to be much worse. Employers cut 403,000 jobs in September, versus 284,000 previously estimated. Another 320,000 were chopped in October, compared with an initial estimate of 240,000.

Employers are slashing costs to the bone as they try to cope with sagging appetites from customers in the U.S. and in other countries, which are struggling with their own economic troubles.

The carnage — including the worst financial crisis since the 1930s — is hitting a wide range of companies.

In recent days, household names like General Motors Corp., AT&T Inc., DuPont, JPMorgan Chase & Co., as well as jet engine maker Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of United Technologies Corp., and mining company Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. announced layoffs.

Fighting for their survival, the chiefs of Chrysler LLC, General Motors and Ford Motor Co. returned to Capitol Hill Friday to again ask lawmakers for as much as $34 billion in emergency aid.

Workers with jobs saw modest wage gains. Average hourly earnings rose to $18.30 in November, a 0.4 percent increase from the previous month. Over the year, wages have grown 3.7 percent, but paychecks haven't stretched that far because of high prices for energy, food and other items.

Worn-out consumers battered by the job losses, shrinking nest eggs and tanking home values have retrenched, throwing the economy into a tailspin. As the unemployment rate continues to move higher, consumers will burrow further, dragging the economy down even more, a vicious cycle that Washington policymakers are trying to break.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected ratchet down a key interest rate — now near a historic low of 1 percent — by as much as a half-percentage point on Dec. 16 in a bid to breathe life into the moribund economy. Bernanke is exploring other economic revival options and wants the government to step up efforts to curb home foreclosures.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, whose department oversees the $700 billion financial bailout program, also is weighing new initiatives, even as his remaining days in office are numbered.

Obama, who takes office on Jan. 20, has called for a massive economic recovery bill to generate 2.5 million jobs over his first two years in office. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has vowed to have a package ready on Inauguration Day for Obama's signature.

The measure, which could total $500 billion, would bankroll big public works projects to create jobs, provide aid to states to help with Medicaid costs, and provide money toward renewable energy development.

At 12 months and counting, the recession is longer than the 10-month average length of recessions since World War II. The record for the longest recession in the postwar period is 16 months, which was reached in the 1973-75 and 1981-82 downturns. The current recession might end up matching that or setting a record in terms of duration, analysts say.

The 1981-82 recession was the worst in terms of unemployment since the Great Depression. The jobless rate rose as high as 10.8 percent in late 1982, just as the recession ended, before inching down.

Given the current woes, the jobless rate could rise as high as 8.5 percent by the end of next year, some analysts predict. Projections, however, have to be taken with a grain of salt because of all the uncertainties plaguing the economy. Still, the unemployment rate often peaks after a recession has ended. That's because companies are reluctant to ramp up hiring until they feel certain the recovery has staying power.



※ 来源:Unknown Friends - 未名交友 http://us.jiaoyou8.com ※
unavail ( 男 , 45 )
地区: 美国, 加州
作者: unavail, 俱乐部:醉是音乐 [引文评论] [评论
时间: 2008-12-05 21:45:41, 来源:未名交友
标题: Re: 金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII)

[天籁之音] 心灵舒眠
金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XII)
金融危机, 房地产, 投资 (XIII


※ 来源:Unknown Friends - 未名交友 http://us.jiaoyou8.com ※
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