花旗通用引爆另一根引信 华尔街危机纵深蔓延

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　　花旗危卵

　　至本周三，这家资产规模位列全美第二大银行现在已沦为美国第五大银行，花旗集团的市值从此前最高的2700亿美元跌到257亿美元。已经被美国银行和纽约梅隆银行、U.S. Bancorp超过，尽管花旗资产规模是这三个公司合起来的四倍。

　　独立经济学家谢国忠告诉本报记者，美财长宣布7000亿美元的救助计划放弃购买不良资产，从而引起市场上整个不良资产价格的大幅下降的忧虑，公司债的利息大幅上升；而银行的主要资产是向公司借贷的，这意味着银行的资产在不断贬值。这是花旗最近面临最大的问题。

　　标准普尔的信贷分析师泰娅·阿萨克斯称，花旗集团面临着更加严峻的问题，目前市场状况的恶化，按市价计值的冲销尚未结束。

　　据CMA DataVision的数据显示，为花旗集团1000万美元债券承保五年的年成本周三飙升至约342,000美元，较上一个交易日增加了10多万美元。这一水平仍远远低于雷曼兄弟申请破产保护前的承保成本。

　　目前，美国政府已通过问题资产救助计划(TARP)向花旗注资250亿美元，此后，花旗再未向政府寻求资金援助。花旗新闻发言人20日再次重申“其拥有强劲的资本和流动性状况，公司目前专注的战略将产生好的效果”。

　　但根据路透社21日的报道，花旗集团内部正在讨论出售公司的部分资产、甚至全盘出售或者与其他公司合并的可能性。但是，这些选择包括与其他公司合并对花旗的管理者来说非常难受，因为这意味着他们将不再掌控这家公司。花旗董事会在本周五还举行例会商讨此事。

　　本周，花旗银行股价下跌超过50%，创下了历史上的最大跌幅。北京工商大学证券期货交易所所长胡逾越表示，花旗集团不断暴露出的结构性产品及可能存在的信贷方面的问题，在前景不明朗时，找到买家希望渺小，而愈来愈薄弱的资本基础、以及愈来愈多的信贷损失和冲减已经没有太多时间留给花旗了。

　　谢国忠指出，近来花旗集团的不良资产不断上升，消费信贷方面出事的可能性比较大。未来这对花旗和消费者都是一个巨大的风险。

　　虽然花旗的原股东在接受媒体采访时担忧接受政府援助后股票将有大幅稀释的可能性。但谢国忠认为，在目前这种危机的情形下，政府出手的可能性非常大，花旗原有股东与政府的博弈不可能持续，花旗最有可能还是会被政府接管，因为它在美国金融业中所占的地位和比重都太重要了。

　　银行分析师估计，其商业地产、信用卡以及新兴市场领域可能还会面临超过200亿美元的损失。

　　危机加深

　　同时，底特律的三大汽车厂商连续在美国参议院和众议院艰苦卓绝的游说活动也以失败而告终。通用和福特汽车每月要消耗20—50亿美元现金，而目前的资金情况很难支撑其熬到1月份。华尔街危机耗尽了公司资本，国会此前拨款250亿美元援助汽车公司，他们希望再提供250亿美元低息政府贷款。但欧盟委员会主席巴罗佐威胁这种国家援助若“不合法”，欧盟将向世界贸易组织(WTO)提出诉讼。

　　最终援助议案搁浅表明其他企业获得更多政府救助的难度更大。

　　游说失败之后，通用汽车首席执行长瓦格纳、福特汽车首席执行长艾伦·穆拉莱均明确表示，将要竭尽全力避免破产。而这一强硬表态能在多大程度上倒逼国会出手相救，目前还不得而知。

　　谢国忠说，底特律三大汽车厂商存在破产的可能性比较大。“即使政府出手救助，只不过起到一时的缓冲作用。”美国汽车问题困扰美国三十年，若没根本性改变，最终是很难逃脱破产厄运。

　　市场数据显示，目前三大汽车厂商债券利息都在20%左右。如此高利息反映出市场对汽车巨头前景很悲观。

　　胡逾越说，花旗集团和通用汽车出现危机是一个非常明显的信号，表明金融危机已经进入到了一个新的阶段。

　　1929年欧洲金融危机向纵深发展的标志性事件是：达姆斯达特银行倒闭，德国九大银行锐减为四个。众多大企业倒闭，存活下来的也是得益于兼并收购或抱团取暖。

　　“这似乎是一个宿命，也似乎是一种巧合，无论是1929年还是1980年的经济危机，实体经济中的大企业和大银行的破产倒闭，都恰好是金融危机向经济危机发展发生转折的时间点。”中金公司研究部一名分析师称。

　　目前，受经济形势可能进一步恶化的影响，华尔街将展开新一轮裁员风暴。预计金融部门将裁掉7万人，之前全球金融行业估计已裁员15万人。

　　如果美国国会不出手拯救汽车行业，涉及20万人的直接就业可能面临威胁，失业人数将进一步增加。

　　但谢国忠说，破产并不代表停产，可以通过并购重组进行行业洗牌，并不会把整个美国经济拖向崩溃。但谢也承认，现在美国的实体经济正在快速萎缩，第四季度将萎缩2%，接下来会出现大量的公司倒闭现象。

　　全球经济衰退比预想的可能更为猛烈，预计包括中国在内的全球经济的日子在明年上半年更为艰难。

　　目前，美国股市平均市净率在1.4—1.5倍左右，已经接近1929年经济大萧条时平均市净率1.1倍的水平。

Obama outlines rebuilding plans to create 2.5M jobs by 2011

WASHINGTON – President-elect Barack Obama promoted an economic plan Saturday he said would create 2.5 million jobs by rebuilding roads and bridges and modernizing schools while developing alternative energy sources and more efficient cars.

"These aren't just steps to pull ourselves out of this immediate crisis. These are the long-term investments in our economic future that have been ignored for far too long," Obama said in the weekly Democratic radio address.

The goal is to it quickly through Congress, with help from both parties, after Obama takes office Jan. 20. The plan, which envisions those new jobs by January 2011, is "big enough to meet the challenges we face," he said.

Obama noted the growing evidence the country is "facing an economic crisis of historic proportions" and said he was pleased Congress passed an extension of unemployment benefits this past week. But, he added, `We must do more to put people back to work and get our economy moving again."

Nonetheless, he said, "There are no quick or easy fixes to this crisis, which has been many years in the making, and it's likely to get worse before it gets better."

It will take support from Democrats and Republicans to pass the economic plan, Obama said. "I'll be welcome to ideas and suggestions from both sides of the aisle," he said. "But what is not negotiable is the need for immediate action."

People "are lying awake at night wondering if next week's paycheck will cover next month's bills," if their jobs will remain, if their retirement savings will disappear, he added.

The Labor Department reported that claims for unemployment benefits jumped last week to the highest level since July 1992, providing fresh evidence of the weakening job market.

"We'll put people back to work rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges, modernizing schools that are failing our children, and building wind farms and solar panels," Obama said. He also made a commitment to fuel-efficient cars and alternative energy technologies "that can free us from our dependence on foreign oil and keep our economy competitive in the years ahead."

Obama pointed to the past, saying that Americans in this country's darkest hours have risen above their divisions to solve their problems, as a hope for the future.

"We have acted boldly, bravely, and above all, together," Obama said. "That is the chance our new beginning now offers us, and that is the challenge we must rise to in the days to come. It is time to act. As the next president of the United States, I will."

性与谎言搞垮美国经济?泡沫下贷业女性淫乱换利益

这波席卷全球的金融风暴，最初源自美国的次贷泡沫迸破。而在这个巨大泡沫中充斥著性与谎言，不少次贷业女性不惜以美色换取贷款案成交，不少把关高层恫吓不肯配合造假的属下，行贿、伪造文书等行为层出不穷，最后演变成横扫全球金融及经济的刺骨寒风。

美国房贷泡沫膨胀期间，不少高中辍学女生挂著「房贷盘商」的头衔，懵懵懂懂地进入放款业体系。她们的经验，可以让外界一窥箇中的无耻放纵，导致整个产业崩溃。年轻貌美的房贷盘商替银行等放款机构工作，职务内容是向个别房贷经纪人购买房贷申请案，再和放款公司协商放贷。

女盘商们靠抽取成交佣金赚钱，放款案做成愈多，酬劳也更多。房贷泡沫膨胀时，鸭子划水的房贷盘商变成高薪一族。例如高中辍学的莎曼．兰恩原本只是个美甲师，一九九七年加入次贷业者「新世纪房贷」公司后，她在二○○二年的收入是一百万美元，○三年则有一百廿万美元。

钱这麽好赚，最后房贷仲介业狂热起来，许多女性房贷盘商竞向经纪人争夺相同的房贷申请案；经纪人权大便势大，于是要求额外的东西，也就是性服务，才把业务给她们。不少前经纪人及女盘商表示，美色换业务的行为如此普遍，以至于最后被视为理所当然。兰恩回忆说，有次她造访加州圣荷西市一家房贷经纪公司，经理人在办公室裡便向她求欢；她拒绝之后，什麽案子都拿不到。兰恩表示，其他不觉得有什麽噁心的女盘商上床之后，很快便能拿到申贷案。

过度投资造成泡沫，过程中总有许多踰法犯纪，房贷泡沫自不例外，淫乱只是其中的小儿科。不少呈堂证供及业界中人指出，许多女盘商还向同事行贿、伪造文书，甚至教导经纪人如何违法犯纪。受训最少但穿著也最少的女盘商，在经纪人当中最吃香。胡搞乱搞的绝不止女盘商们。直接与贷款人打交道的经纪人也在窜改或演灭文件。

银行裡决定批淮贷款与否的承销行员也上下其手，向盘商索取贿款，才肯让明知有弊的贷款案过关。有些行员向上级呈报有不法情形，居然被炒鱿鱼或者遭到骚扰。房市好时，投资银行尽可能大买特买贷款案，然后汇整包装成证券出售。二○○六年，包括美林、贝尔斯登及雷曼兄弟等十大投资银行出售的房贷担保债券，金额便达一兆五千亿美元；二○○○年才只有二千四百五十亿美元。

为了保证贷款案源源不绝，许多投资银行一开始买下小型、独立运作的房贷盘商机构，接下来扩大信贷给承作次级房贷的放款公司，投资那些公司或者全部买下。二○○六年房市狂热的高峰期，前六大投资银行共砸下廿二亿美元在购买次贷小公司；次贷要求的利率最高，所以最有利可图。

国际货币基金组织:金融危机尚未触顶 还将持续一年

新华网日内瓦11月22日专电国际货币基金组织（IMF）首席经济学家奥利维尔·布兰查德22日在接受瑞士媒体采访时说，金融危机尚未触顶，并正在演变成为一场更广泛的经济危机，预计危机还将持续一年时间。

布兰查德在接受瑞士《财政经济报》采访时说:“这只是（危机的）开始，未来经济数据有可能进一步恶化，并导致预期更加悲观，需求加速下滑。”

他认为，此次危机还将持续一年时间，恢复正常的经济增长要等到2011年。

布兰查德还呼吁各国政府加大财政刺激力度，并主张各国央行尽可能降息，甚至实施零利率政策。

根据IMF的最新预测，2009年全球经济增长率为2．2％，而发达经济体经济将出现0．3％的负增长。

// citi management won’t give up bonus
// too big to be failed is the only reason to rescure citi with tax payers money.

Analysis: Why Citi had to be rescued

WASHINGTON – Taxpayers may be wondering why they're forking over more money to rescue yet another behemoth, Citigroup, even as their own nest eggs crack and jobs evaporate.

The answer is that Uncle Sam thinks letting Citi fail is unthinkable.

The government has decided that guaranteeing hundreds of billions of dollars in possible losses and injecting $20 billion more into Citi trumps the alternative — a panic that could leave retirement accounts and investment portfolios of millions of ordinary Americans in tatters and shove more people out of jobs.

Whether the government's rescue of Citigroup Inc., announced late Sunday, will ultimately prove a good deal for taxpayers is hard to tell. In part, that's because no one seems sure what Citi's troubled assets are actually worth.

If the gamble pays off, Citigroup would be back on firm footing, unhinged financial markets would recover and taxpayers would turn a profit. If it doesn't, taxpayers would take a hit. And they would possibly have to rescue still more huge financial institutions, digging the bailout hole even deeper.

"It is way to early in this crisis to say whether it is a winner or a loser," said Cornelius Hurley, a professor and director of the graduate program in banking and financial law at Boston University. "I don't know if I am exhilarated by the prospect of being a shareholder in Citi or AIG. I'd rather have the money in my 401(k)."

Back in 1979, the U.S. guaranteed $1.2 billion worth of loans to Chrysler. When the struggling automaker rebounded four years later, the government reaped more than $300 million in profits.

The Bush administration, which leaves office on Jan. 20, has decided that Citigroup, insurer American International Group and mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are indeed to big to let fail.

Yet Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has opposed using money from the $700 billion financial bailout to help teetering Detroit automakers or financially troubled homeowners. The bailout money, Paulson has said, was intended to stabilize the fragile financial system, including major banks.

Many in Detroit resent the fact that Citi and AIG received government bailout money while auto executives have been grilled, rebuffed and required to come up with plans to justify fresh federal loans.

Tim Leuliette, CEO of auto parts maker Dura Automotive Systems Inc. in Rochester Hills, Mich., said what the Detroit Three are asking for amounts to about 4 percent of the $700 billion Congress granted in the Wall Street bailout.

"I don't think the guys from Citi were there over the weekend getting grilled when they got their $20 billion last night," Leuliette complained.

The case for rescuing Citigroup, a company with 200 million customers and operations in more than 100 countries, may be more persuasive than the case for smaller banks whose reach doesn't extend so far. Still, the government action makes other financial companies more likely to seek federal aid.

President George W. Bush held open the prospect Monday of similar arrangements should other companies falter. And Paulson could still decide to tap the second $350 billion installment of the $700 billion package.

Treasury and the Federal Reserve are exploring using some of the bailout money to bankroll a new loan facility to help companies that issue credit cards, make student loans and finance car purchases.

The Treasury chief has been hammered by critics in Congress and elsewhere for his handling of the $700 billion bailout, especially for frequent and confusing shifts in strategy. Paulson abandoned an initial approach to buy rotten mortgages and other bad assets from banks and focused instead on buying ownership stakes in banks.

"Paulson is doing a poor job of explaining this to Mr. and Mrs. Kettle, but it is tough to explain all of this in a sort of sound bite," said Sean Snaith, economics professor at the University of Central Florida.

The $20 billion cash injection by the Treasury Department will come from the $700 billion package. The capital infusion follows an earlier $25 billion infusion into in which the government also received an ownership stake. That earlier $25 billion was part of a capital injection program for major banks.

As part of the plan, Treasury and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will guarantee against the "possibility of unusually large losses" by Citi on up to $306 billion of risky loans and securities backed by commercial and residential mortgages.

"An eclectic response is necessary given how the crisis is evolving," Snaith said. "It is like battling a virus that is mutating."

Citigroup was hit especially hard by the meltdown in risky subprime mortgages made to people with tarnished credit or low incomes. Foreclosures on those mortgages spiked. That left Citi and other financial companies with huge losses on the soured investments.

Under the loss-sharing arrangement, Citigroup Inc. will assume the first $29 billion in losses on the risky pool of assets, which stays on its books. Beyond that amount, the government would absorb 90 percent of the remaining losses and Citigroup 10 percent. Money from the $700 billion bailout and funds from the FDIC would cover the government's portion of potential losses. The Federal Reserve would finance the remaining assets with a loan to Citigroup.

In exchange for the guarantees, the government will get $7 billion in preferred shares of Citigroup.

As a condition of the rescue, Citigroup cannot pay quarterly dividends to shareholders of more than 1 cent a share for three years unless it obtains consent from the three federal agencies. The bank is now paying a dividend of 16 cents, halved from a 32-cent payout in the previous quarter.

The agreement also restricts executive pay, including bonuses. But it doesn't get rid of Citi's top management as the government did with AIG.

"If you're going to ask for a government bailout, you ought to tender your resignation," Hurley said.

// citi management won’t give up bonus
// too big to be failed is the only reason to rescure citi with tax payers money.

Government plans massive Citigroup rescue effort

WASHINGTON – Rushing to rescue Citigroup, the government agreed to shoulder hundreds of billions of dollars in possible losses at the stricken bank and to plow a fresh $20 billion into the company.

Regulators hope the dramatic action will bolster badly shaken confidence in the once-mighty banking giant as well as the nation's financial system, a goal that so far has been elusive despite a flurry of government interventions to battle the worst global crisis since the 1930s.

Wall Street investors reacted enthusiastically. The Dow Jones industrials shot up about 300 points in morning trading. Stock markets in Britain and Germany also gained ground. Citigroup shares themselves climbed 61.3 percent to $6.08 in morning trading.

"If they didn't help, the damage would be beyond imagination," said Teck-Kin Suan, economist at United Overseas Bank in Singapore.

The action, announced late Sunday by the Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., is aimed at shoring up a huge financial institution whose collapse would wreak havoc on the already fragile financial system and the U.S. economy.

"With these transactions, the U.S. government is taking the actions necessary to strengthen the financial system and protect U.S. taxpayers and the U.S. economy," the three agencies said in a joint statement. "We will continue to use all of our resources to preserve the strength of our banking institutions, and promote the process of repair and recovery and to manage risks."

President George W. Bush held open the prospect Monday of similar arrangements should other companies falter. "If need be, we will make these kind of decisions to safeguard our financial system in the future," Bush said.

Analysts said a Citigroup failure would have seized up still fragile lending markets and caused untold losses among institutions holding debt and financial products backed by the company.

"It would create chaos," said Winson Fong, managing director at SG Asset Management in Hong Kong, which oversees about $3 billion in equities in Asia. "Simply put, you couldn't borrow or lend for a while. This is a nightmare scenario."

The bold move is the latest in a string of high-profile government bailout efforts. The Fed in March provided financial backing to JPMorgan Chase's buyout of ailing Bear Stearns. Six months later, the government was forced to take over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and throw a financial lifeline — which was recently rejiggered — to insurer American International Group.

Critics worry the actions could put billions of taxpayers' dollars in jeopardy and encourage financial companies to take excessive risk on the belief that the government will bail them out of their messes.

The Citigroup rescue came after a weekend of marathon discussions led by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who is being tapped by President-elect Barack Obama as his Treasury chief also participated. Bush said Monday he consulted with Obama on the Citigroup rescue.

Vikram S. Pandit, Citi's chief executive officer, welcomed the action. "We appreciate the tremendous effort by the government to assure market stability," he said in a statement issued early Monday.

The $20 billion cash injection by the Treasury Department will come from the $700 billion financial bailout package. The capital infusion follows an earlier one — of $25 billion — in Citigroup in which the government also received an ownership stake.

As part of the plan, Treasury and the FDIC will guarantee against the "possibility of unusually large losses" on up to $306 billion of risky loans and securities backed by commercial and residential mortgages.

Under the loss-sharing arrangement, Citigroup Inc. will assume the first $29 billion in losses on the risky pool of assets. Beyond that amount, the government would absorb 90 percent of the remaining losses, and Citigroup 10 percent. Money from the $700 billion bailout and funds from the FDIC would cover the government's portion of potential losses. The Federal Reserve would finance the remaining assets with a loan to Citigroup.

In exchange for the guarantees, the government will get $7 billion in preferred shares of Citigroup. In addition, Citi said it will issue warrants to the U.S. Treasury and the FDIC for about 254 million shares of the company's common stock at a strike price of $10.61.

As a condition of the rescue, Citigroup is barred from paying quarterly dividends to shareholders of more than 1 cent a share for three years unless the company obtains consent from the three federal agencies. The bank is currently paying a dividend of 16 cents, halved from a 32-cent payout in the previous quarter. The agreement also places restrictions on executive compensation, including bonuses.

Importantly, the agreement calls on Citigroup to take steps to help distressed homeowners.

Specifically, Citigroup will modify mortgages to help people avoid foreclosure along the lines of an FDIC plan that was put into effect at IndyMac Bank, a major failed savings and loan based in Pasadena, Calif.

Under the IndyMac plan, struggling home borrowers pay interest rates of about 3 percent for five years. Rates are reduced so that borrowers aren't paying more than 38 percent of their pretax income on housing.

The IndyMac plan also was used as a model for a new program by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and for two other failed thrifts taken over by the government on Friday. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair has been pressing Treasury to use $24 billion from the $700 billion bailout program to put the mortgage modification program on national footing, but Paulson is opposed to that idea.

Citigroup has seen its shares lose 60 percent of their value in the past week, reflecting a crisis of confidence among skittish investors. They are worried all the risky debt on Citigroup's balance sheet will turn into losses as the economy worsens and the markets stay turbulent — losses that could be nearly impossible to reverse.

Citigroup is such a large, interconnected player in the financial system that it is seen by Washington policymakers as too big to fail. The company, with some 200 million customers, has operations stretching around the globe in more than 100 countries.

Analysts consider Citigroup the most vulnerable among the major U.S. banks — especially after it failed to nab Wachovia Corp., which was bought instead by Wells Fargo & Co. That was a missed opportunity for Citi to gets its hands on much-needed U.S. deposits that would bolster its cash position.

美国政府同意向花旗集团注资200亿美元( 组图)